11:30 McCain congratulates Obama at a rally in Pheonix, AR, saying “I pledge to him tonight to do all in my power to help him lead us through the many challenges we face.” In addition, Elizabeth Dole is predicted to lose her Senate seat, securing a 56th Democratic Senator in the next Congress.
11:28: Early results show an Obama win likely in MT and NV. Obama’s OH lead has narrowed to under 100,000 votes.
11:25: As Obama reaches his first lead of the night in IN, McCain widens small leads in MO and NC. Obama has a 9% advantage in CO with nearly half of precincts reporting.
11:07: The only question remaining the Presidential race is, how many votes can Obama tally? 330? 350? 375?
MAJOR NETWORKS ARE CALLING THE RACE FOR BARACK OBAMA. OBAMA HAS DEFEATED McCAIN AND WILL BE THE 44TH PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES.
11:03: Results have started to come in from UT, where McCain is leading. Obama and McCain are still within 10,000 votes of each other in NC, IN, and MO.
10:57: Obama has fallen behind McCain in NC for the first time tonight. Some networks are beginning to predict an Obama victory in VA.
10:54: Fox News just had a rather long segment discussing the ramifications–in terms of new legislation–of an Obama administration. They haven’t officially called the race yet, but it looks like major TV networks will do so soon.
10:39: In the popular vote, Obama is looking to tally more votes than any candidate in history.
10:35: With victories across the map, Obama is looking at mathematical certainty of victory, while McCain is facing either the nigh-impossible proposition of winning California or losing.
10:27: Obama’s one-time lead has shrunk to 4,000 votes and less than 1% in NC, while his VA lead has grown to over 40,000 votes. Neither state is necessary for Obama to carry the electoral college.
10:21: Democrats have assured the election of their 54th Senator, to the Republicans 38th. While a filibuster proof majority of 60 Democratic Senators is possibly within reach, it remains unlikely.
KILLER BUFFALO PROJECTS AN OBAMA VICTORY IN VA AND FL
10:13: McCain continues to lose in Florida by a persistent 3%. An Obama victory there, makes a McCain presidency impossible for 2008.
10:04: CNN has projected that Obama will win IA and McCain will win WV. Nonetheless, Obama and McCain remain within 10,000 votes of each other in VA and IN with 83% and 84% of precincts reporting, respectively.
9:57: Obama has pulled ahead in VA for the first time tonight, albeit by a less than 1% margin. Although an Obama victory in OH is all but guaranteed, races in MI, IN, FL, NC, and VA continue to be too close to call.
9:48: CNN predicts Obama has won New Mexico.
9:44: McCain cannot win the presidency without winning Oregon, Washington, Hawaii or California.
KILLER BUFFALO PREDICTS A VICTORY FOR BARACK OBAMA
9:35: With 11% of MI precincts reporting, Obama has just reached a virtual tie with McCain in the Automotive State.
FOX NEWS, CBS AND MSNBC HAVE CALLED THE STATE OF OHIO FOR BARACK OBAMA
KILLER BUFFALO WOULD LIKE TO EMPHASIZE THE MAGNITUDE OF THIS PROJECTION: IF TRUE, OBAMA HAS A VERY GOOD CHANCE OF TAKING THE WHITE HOUSE.
UPDATE: CNN HAS A “VERY BIG PROJECTION” COMING UP.
9:19: Mitch McConnell, the Senate Minority Leader, has defeated his Democratic challenger Bruce Lunsford in a very close contest.
9:13: With nearly 10% of precincts tallied in Ohio, Obama holds a 12% advantage.
9:05: Democrats have picked up two Senate seats, one in NH and one in NM.
9:01: McCain is off to early leads in MO and ND.
8:46: With nearly half the precincts counted in IN, the vote continues to be split almost exactly down the middle, 51% for McCain and 48% for Obama. In addition preliminary results from MN show a slight lead for McCain.
8:39: Obama is up by 4% in FL with 40% of precincts reporting, and holds a double-digit advantage in North Carolina with 12% of the results in.
8:30: CNN just called New Hampshire for Obama. This is a setback for McCain, but Kerry carried NH in ‘04, so not a disaster.
ABC/NBC HAVE CALLED PENNSYLVANIA FOR BARACK OBAMA
8:19 If it is indeed true that PA falls for Obama, McCain’s path to victory is extremely narrow. An Obama victory in VA, FL, OH or two traditionally Republican western states would hand him the election.
8:04: Most of the Northeastern states have gone for Obama as predicted, including MA, ME, MD, NJ, DC, IL. OK and TN have been called for McCain.
7:52: Obama is leading in Florida by 16 percentage points with over 10% of districts reporting.
7:47: Polls are closing in less than 15 minutes in 15 states and the District of Columbia. Battleground states with polls closing at 8 EST include Missouri, Florida, Pennsylvania and New Hampshire.
7:27: McCain is showing early leads in Virginia and Indiana, with ~10% of votes in so far.
7:08: An interesting statistic from Indiana exit polls, where McCain is leading with 5% of precincts reporting:
33% of voters are looking for a President who “share their values.” A similar number are looking for “change.” This could be tight.
7:03: Polls now closed in several key states, including Virginia, Indiana, Georgia, and parts of Florida and New Hampshire. Major TV networks have called KY for McCain and VT for Obama. No surprises early.
6:54: Exit polling from VA, where polls are closing in less than 10 minutes! Some interesting tidbits:
- Obama has been improving on Kerry’s 2004 margins in northern Virginia
- Barack Obama is winning more than 91% of the African American vote, which makes up ~22% of voters
- 72%/27% approve/disapprove (respectively) of the job Bush is doing
- 48% of white voters are backing Obama, compared to 32% who backed Kerry in 2004
6:35: Some early exit polling courtesy (Please note that exit polls traditionally over-emphasize younger voters and therefore skew Democratic, so caution is advisable before making any conclusions):
The states where Obama led in exit polls:
Florida: 52 percent to 44 percent
Iowa: 52 percent to 48 percent
Missouri: 52 percent to 48 percent
North Carolina: 52 percent to 48 percent
New Hampshire: 57 percent to 43 percent
Nevada: 55 percent to 45 percent
Pennsylvania: 57 percent to 42 percent
Ohio: 54 percent to 45 percent
Wisconsin: 58 percent to 42 percent
Indiana: 52 percent to 48 percent
New Mexico: 56 percent to 43 percent
Minnesota: 60 percent to 39 percent
Michigan: 60 percent to 39 percent
The states where McCain led in exit polls:
Georgia: 51 percent to 47 percent
West Virginia: 55 percent to 45 percent
6:18: Polls in some parts of Indiana and Kentucky have closed. But let’s take a minute to examine some of the possibilities for tonight:
Obama Landslide (Killer Buffalo predicts ~ 25%): If Obama wins Virginia (where polls close at 7 EST) and takes either Indiana or Georgia, look towards a landslide of 350+ electoral votes. If Obama wins Virginia but loses in both Indiana and Georgia, he ought to win the election as long as he can hold on to Pennsylvania.
Obama small victory (Killer Buffalo predicts ~ 70%): If McCain cleans up in the battleground states early (perhaps excluding Pennsylvania, where Obama is heavily favored), Obama will need to win a state or two out West to round out what would end up a solid victory.
McCain victory (Killer Buffalo predicts ~ 5%) : If McCain does not win in Pennsylvania, he will have a difficult time finding the 270 electoral votes necessary. He would need to hold every state that Bush held in 2004, many of which Obama is heavily favored in. However, victory in Pennsylvania would indicate some polling error, and perhaps flip many of those states into the Republican column–leading to perhaps even a comfortable win.
5:50 (EST): Welcome to Killer Buffalo’s live coverage of the 2008 election! First polls are closing in Indiana and Kentucky in less than 10 minutes!
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Please keep the results coming. What’ll happen on the west coast tonight? NM? AR? NV? OR?
So does it matter what happens on the west coast?
Congratulations Barack!
Thanks to you, Killer Buffalo staff, for creating this forum for independent thinkers. Congratulations, America!