On the morning of August 20th, Senator Obama and Senator McCain are in a virtual dead heat for the White House, Mr. Obama leading most recent polls by a shrinking 1-2% margin, well within possible error. In seven days Mr. Obama will speak at the Democratic Nation Convention, where his campaign might or might not garner sufficient media attention to ride him through the GOP’s Convention; much of this rests on his long-awaited vice-presidential choice.
However eight days, Alaska Governor Sarah Palin will enter the global stage and ensure Mr. Obama’s media frenzy never occurs—or never occurs the way he wanted it too. Rather than Mr. Obama’s face blanketing international newspapers in coming weeks, Ms. Palin’s will remain the fixture of journalism; indeed, to disarm the world obsession with Mr. Obama was Mr. McCain’s strategy. In hindsight, it may have backfired.
As final results from North Carolina and Indiana—where Mr. Obama has claimed slim victories—begin storming in, what was the McCain campaign has found themselves in the concluding moments of a run against the media, the newly-born Democratic machine, and finally, Ms. Palin.
Mr. McCain knows better than anyone that politics is a fragile game. Political moves—often subtle, often vague, and often misinterpreted—are to be perceived sometimes only by opinion. If nothing else, Ms. Palin’s selection as Mr. McCain’s vice-presidential candidate has proved this. Though Ms. Palin’s national entrance did much to dissolve previous mistrust of Mr. McCain by the Republican Party’s conservative base, it gave rise to new rifts between Mr. McCain and the independents that so adored him in the past. Some moderates saw Mr. McCain’s vice-presidential choice as strategically abandoning centrist voters. Where Mr. McCain once drew praise from the majority of the political spectrum, partisan attacks by the Democratic Party were well-received by many independents, who saw Ms. Palin’s libertarian economic policies and religious devotion as tributes to President Bush.
Instead of defending Ms. Palin, the McCain campaign proceeded to set-off an array of attack ads, broadcasting some of the first signs of agitation from his campaign. Mr. Obama, on the other hand, did what Ms. Palin and Mr. McCain could not: he used American anger with Mr. Bush to defend himself, using the media as tool to advertise the abstract ideals of his campaign. What resulted were Obama press endorsements racking up and a growing credibility to Mr. Obama’s campaign; when his campaign reported on the unstableness of Mr. McCain, the media simply relayed the information at face value. Mr. McCain, in a deeper and deeper hole, responded to attacks on his temperament with greater—and sometimes less relevant—attacks.
Strategic failure and a political gambling have brought down Mr. McCain. The attributes that brought him so close to the presidency—determination and risk management—were lost in transition to the general election. And while the days of the campaign may be gone, those of fairness left long before it.
Pacer521 is the thirteen year old political blogger and author of Culture Decoded: the Blog At The End of the Universe. His writing has been syndicated around the web and by newspapers including Boston Globe.
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Palin was a gigantic mistake. The race was over before McCain chose her but if it wasn’t she would have ended the race. There’s nothing to debate about that.
Well, articles like this are appearing all over the blogosphere, and they are echoing mainstream media analysis fueled by leaks from McCain’s staff on the rogue status of Sarah Palin during the campagin.
However the truth of the matter is that Sarah Palin energized the Republican campaign. For as many independents that she might have put off, she gained by those excited to be a Republican–some for the first time, such as myself as I switched over from being a lifelong Democrat to a Republican with the hope and the promise that if McCain/Palin were elected then corruption in Washington might be fought and some real commonsense might be brought to governing in Washington.
How quickly though the so-called analysts want to find a scapegoat. After every pundit and his brother or sister has screamed “It’s the economy, stupid!” suddenly it’s the Choice of Sarah Palin that cost McCain the election? After McCain pronounced that the “economy is fundamentally strong” the night before the bankruptcies and the Stock Market Plunge? I don’t think so.
It’s true that Sarah Palin was not qualified. And it’s true that she bombed in Charlie Gibson’s and Katie Couric’s interviews. But the fault for that goes with McCain, who pretty much railroaded Sarah Palin down the path of running mate and not vetting her properly nor giving her a staff that she could work with with the priority of getting her up to speed in all areas that mattered. And if you remember two short decades ago when Dan Quayle was picked as Bush the senior’s running mate, he received the same criticisms and made the same foolish gaffes as Palin. But Bush won anyway. People don’t choose their President based on what a VP Candidate brings to the ticket. People choose their President based on whether they believe the candidate makes sense to them and can give them what he or she wants. Bottom line: the American Electorate thought that Barack Obama was better able to deliver the kitchen sink to the American People than John McCain, even though they all trust John McCain more and believe McCain is more qualified to be President.
So where did McCain go wrong? Not by his choice of Sarah Palin. But by his inability to communicate a message of strength, security, and economic stability and growth. This ON TOP of being from the same party as President George Bush, the most ineffective President and most unpopular President in our nation’s history. That being said, after 911, the United States has been kept safe from terrorist attacks. Barack Obama will be hard pressed to keep us so safe after Russia, Iran, Israel and Japan are all expressing cynicism of various diplomatic oeuvres and talks with hostile nations such as Iran. Policies of appeasement resulted in WWII. Barack Obama must not be perceived as weak. That’s at least one strength George Bush and McCain shared; however, McCain failed to capitalize on it during the final campaign push. The famous 3:00 AM ad may have resonated if McCain had used it correctly and to his advantage. But unfortunately, McCain made poor strategic choices on how to communicate his message and how to utilize Sarah Palin–not as the effective reformer and governor and woman of integrity she is, but as the lipstick-wearing pitbull attack dog just trying to tear Barack Obama down. The person responsible for that decision is John McCain.
I think you’re missing the point Matt. Sarah Palin rallied Democrats against McCain and gave many rational people a reason to vote for Barack Obama. Worse, she betrayed the campaign towards the end and began her campaign for a Senate seat and eventually the Republican nomination for president. That’s my thought on the matter.
Well thanks for your view, but I don’t think I’m missing the point. From the start, McCain’s campaign was disorganized. He was written off before the primaries were over. He came back, he had no real message. He chose Sarah Palin and enthusiasm for his campaign exploded. Then he and his advisory team mis-handled her and she self-destructed on Gibson and Couric interviews.
McCain bungled it. It was his campaign. Not hers. Sarah Palin never asked to be on the ticket. McCain chose her without proper vetting. You can’t blame her for being put in the situation that she was. And as she rallied democrats against McCain–who really didn’t need much more rallying because most Democrats already viewed Obama as a messiah who offered hope and change and who could do no wrong; she rallied conservatives and independents with her anti-corruption rhetoric. That McCain’s campaign chose to focus her as an attack dog on Obama’s associations with Ayres and Wright instead of maximizing her role as a corruption fighter was McCain’s strategic blunder.
And bottom line, even after this argument gets analyzed to death, no vice presidential candidate in history has been responsible for a presidential candidate winning or losing an election. People vote for the candidate, not the running mate. Do you remember George Bush Sr and Dan Quayle? That Sarah Palin got more media attention than John McCain is further indication of what a poor job the McCain campaign did in focusing the issues that were important for Americans.
The day McCain lost the election was the day that he said the fundamentals of the economy are strong right before the bankruptcies and the collapse of Wall Street began. Sarah Palin didn’t say that, McCain did.
The person responsible for John McCain’s loss is John McCain.
Next time you suggest I’m missing the point, Becky, please refer to which point I’m missing so I can better respond.
Thanks!
I respect that you care much about this Matt, but I still disagree. I think Palin scared people and took away McCain’s credibility in the eyes of certain voting groups. You’re right that VP shouldn’t make or break a candidate and as you say McCain in the end is responsible for his failure. But Palin definitely did her part to ensure defeat.
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I think Sarah Palin was one of MANY mistakes made by McCain in the election. To be honest, I liked McCain before he ran for President but I didn’t like the McCain I saw on the Presidential campaign trail. And Palin was just another reason for me not to like him.