killer buffalo

Energy: The biggest question surrounding Obama’s energy plan is whether or not he will actually go through with it. Will he use the economic crisis as a justification to ignore promises for environmental reform and a commitment to ending climate change. Without a doubt, solving global warming—in addition to finding energy independence—is the most formidable challenge of our time. Yet there will be massive pressures from conservatives to tighten spending, particularly given the likely upcoming $1 trillion economic stimulus package. If energy is truly Obama’s first priority, as he stated during his second debate with Senator McCain, then he will forge ahead with funding for renewable energy research and implementation, economic crisis or not.

The Economy: The elephant in the room. Obama plans to implement a massive stimulus package as soon as he takes office. The proposed bill, if it passes in Congress, calls for paying unemployed workers to do “shovel-ready” state-run projects, especially those that focus on repairing the nation’s deteriorating infrastructure. The major problem is that few people actually have the requisite training to do such jobs. How many people are going to be paid for digging ditches and filling them back in again? While Mr. Obama and his team are eager to call his economic plan the “new New Deal,” it’s unclear how effective simply modifying 1930s programs—such as the WPA—would be; the underpinnings of the current economic crisis are in the housing market (read: subprime mortgages), which Mr. Obama has failed to address, and unlike in the ‘30s, the majority of American’s disposable income is not going towards domestically manufactured consumer products. Instead, it’s being spent on things like health care, which don’t “boost” the economy in any traceable fashion.

The Automakers: Although President Bush has already approved bridge loans to Chrysler and General Motors, it’s unclear whether they are more than a band-aid with short-term benefits and long-term impotence. In the current economic climate, people aren’t buying cars. Most don’t have the money, and those who do are saving it. That isn’t just a problem for the Big Three; it’s a problem for every automaker in the world. Even Toyota had recorded its first quarterly loss in 70-plus years. And if the current situation continues, no loan is going to keep unprofitable companies in business. Thus if GM and Chrysler are running out of money again in March or April, Mr. Obama is going to have to get his citizens to buy cars rather than continuing to use TARP funds to keep bailing out auto manufacturers.

Israel: Although Obama has toughened up his stance in the past year or so, he remains the least pro-Israel president elected in the past sixty years. That isn’t to say he will not continue the status quo: far more vehement American support for Israel than what comes from the EU. Even if that was his previous plan, Israel’s response to rocket fire from Gaza might make him reconsider. If Israel decides to utilize the ground forces it is currently massing, an invasion of Gaza might be seen by the broader public as being as unwarranted as Russia’s response to Georgia’s invasion of South Ossetia back in August. Although a cease-fire would be nice—and it’s likely that something will be worked out in the next twenty days given the extent of the damage—Israel’s situation is unsustainable if it needs to bomb a neighboring country every four years (remember Lebanon?). Mr. Obama once stated that he would sit down with Hamas, although, under pressure to move to the center, he later retracted that promise. Now—when open dialogue is desperately needed to resolve the conflict between Israel and Hamas before current hostilities widen into greater civilian casualties—it might be a prudent time to make good on that promise.

Iraq, Afghanistan and Iran: Mr. Obama will withdraw American troops from Iraq. Indeed, while the current war will draw to a close, bigger challenges lie to Iraq’s south and east. Acknowledging this, the President-elect has promised to employ a “mini-surge” in Afghanistan; but is that what Afghanistan really needs? Violence—which has flared—is not the same problem in Afghanistan that it was in Iraq. A troop surge of any kind will not correct outdated and ineffective methods of discouraging farmers from growing opium and a corrupt government. As top commanders in the region have been begging to have more attention paid to their demands, the US becomes increasingly embroiled in recession at home, only further distracting voters from Middle East Policy. Meanwhile, Iran is imminently dangerous. Even Mr. Obama’s correct decision to sit down with Mahmoud Ahmadinejad will likely fail? As much as the US would like Iran to believe that military action is on the table, Mr. Obama knows it isn’t; he needs a backup plan.

Social Issues: Where does Mr. Obama really stand on gay rights? His choice of Rick Warren to give the invocation address at his inauguration certainly has some progressives worried. Which Barack Obama will be living in the White House this year: the “center-left” Democratic nominee or the left-wing senator from Illinois?

-William Hakim

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